In its fourth year, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine remains one of the central security challenges of our time. Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Russia has fundamentally changed the starting position for possible negotiations on a ceasefire or peace agreement. Key Russian demands, such as territorial concessions and the exclusion of a Ukrainian NATO membership, are already under consideration in parts of the Western debate. Ukraine has been clear, however, that such issues will never be agreed by external actors and can only be discussed directly between Ukraine and Russia. This poses difficult challenges not only for Ukraine, but also for European states, especially as it remains unclear  whether the EU will be involved in future negotiations formats at all.

The outcome of these talks is likely to permanently alter Europe’s security architecture. The consequences are difficult to foresee, particularly for the EU’s eastern member states that directly border the Russian zone of influence. If the transatlantic partnership continues to weaken, how can the EU guarantee protection from Russian expansionism? What role can and should it play in shaping an independent European security framework—not only against Russia, but potentially with Russia in the longer term? Finally, what message will the outcome of this war send for other geopolitical conflicts? The stakes go far beyond Ukraine, touching the future of international order and Europe’s global role in it.

The event is part of the Bonn Symposium organised by the Development and Peace Foundation (sef).