Skip to content
Discussion Paper Mariia Levchenko

Between Stability and Change

This paper examines Chad’s 2022 National Dialogue (Dialogue National Inclusif et Souverain, DNIS) as a case study of the use of so-called “National Dialogues” during political transitions. After providing an analytical overview, the study finds that Chad’s dialogue largely served to legitimize the existing military-led regime rather than to effect genuine systemic change. The convened forum (August–October 2022) was initiated by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) after the death of longtime president Idriss Déby (2021) and was presented as an inclusive platform to address deep-rooted conflicts, design reforms, and prepare elections. In practice, however, the dialogue was dominated by pro-regime actors, while key opposition and armed groups largely abstained. Its ostensible outcomes – notably a two-year extension of the transition and endorsement of Déby’s bid to run in future elections – were announced without meaningful debate or vote, prompting mass protests and a harsh government crackdown. The research findings are based on fieldwork conducted by the author during a research fellowship at the Academy of International Affairs NRW, including surveys and interviews with dialogue participants and key stakeholders. It concludes that Chad’s dialogue ultimately reinforced the status quo, underscoring that National Dialogues have potential only if they genuinely balance elite and popular interests. Lessons are drawn for other contexts: effective National Dialogues require broad stakeholder buy-in, transparent procedures, and binding follow-through. Without these, they risk becoming facades that entrench rather than resolve conflicts.