Geopolitics Between Climate Change and Global Realignment

A public evening event, organised as a joint initiative between the Academy and IDOS, explored the complex interplay between geopolitics and environmental change. The event formed part of the City of Bonn’s ‘May of Science’ initiative. The focus was on two current crisis regions and geopolitical hotspots: the Arctic and the Middle East.

The event took place following a Fellow Workshop on the same day and aimed to make the scientific expertise of the workshop participants available to a wider public. After a welcome by Manuel Becker from the Academy, AIA Fellow Cécile Pelaudeix began by providing an overview of the key discussion topics and findings from the preceding workshop. Following this, Dorothee Wehrmann from IDOS and AIA Fellow Christian Bueger, moderated by Charlotte Gehrke from the Alfred Wegener Institute at the University of Oldenburg, discussed how changing trade routes and regional tensions, as well as the climate crisis, are reshaping global power dynamics.

Climate change is not only altering the environment but also shifting global power dynamics. The potential for the extraction of mineral resources in these regions was identified as a key factor in their increased significance. In the Arctic, melting ice is opening up new trade routes and access to resources, which is intensifying geopolitical interests, as has been evident in the debate over Greenland, amongst other examples. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains a key bottleneck for global oil trade and, consequently, for the global economy. The main difference compared to other waterways is that there is no way to bypass it. It became clear how closely energy, resources, trade routes and security interests are intertwined and how strongly they shape international politics.

The role of international law was the subject of heated debate. However, there was agreement that hasty conclusions suggesting it ultimately falls short are misguided. Rather, it continues to be the subject of lively and controversial discussion amongst states. It remains capable of creating reliability through common rules and agreements, thereby helping to prevent conflicts or resolve them peacefully. Furthermore, warnings were issued against narrowing the perspective to just a few states, and it was recommended that the focus be broadened to encompass the multitude of actors in the international community. Time and again, perspectives were also highlighted on how international cooperation can succeed despite growing tensions.