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Fellow Colloquium

Structural Transformation in the Age of Digitalisation and AI: Labour Market Shifts and the Politics of Inclusion

Tuhinsubhra Giri explained the far-reaching impact of AI on the world of work. This relates not only to the threat of job losses, but above all to changes in the nature of work, skills, sectors and forms of employment. He believes that overall employment levels may remain stable, whilst at the same time undergoing very significant change. It is therefore crucial to consider who stands to gain, who stands to lose, and who will have access to new opportunities.

He went on to explain that it is not enough to focus solely on technological innovations; rather, it is important to focus on institutions, specific labour market policy measures, further training and social security, as these play a key role in cushioning the impact of change. As two specific case studies with illustrative significance, he compared the regions of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany and Karnataka in India, which, in his view, represent different paths of transformation: NRW is continuing to transform a heavily industrialised economy towards digitalisation and AI, whilst Karnataka combines a highly productive technology sector with a large informal and platform-based workforce. He further emphasised that formal eligibility does not necessarily imply actual participation.

In his research, he distinguishes between coverage (who is entitled), take-up (who actually makes use of the provision), adequacy (how effective it is) and voice (who has a say in decision-making). His central policy question is therefore: Who pays for inclusion and who decides on it? To answer this question, he presented the so-called exposure–mediation model. This model links two levels: the extent to which and the manner in which a region is affected by technological change, and how institutions mediate these effects.