How has Central Asia’s relationship with Russia changed since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022? In her new AIA Discussion Paper, “Geopolitical Reorientations in Central Asia: Diplomatic Balancing in a Pro-Russian Region,” Dr. Karolina Kluczewska examines the geopolitical shifts in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Drawing on her many years of expertise in the region, Kluczewska shows that, despite their continued close political and economic ties with Russia, the five states are increasingly carving out new room for maneuver. Central to this is the concept of “diplomatic balancing”: the cautious diversification of international partnerships and migration opportunities without fundamentally jeopardizing relations with Russia. The analysis highlights how these states are attempting to safeguard their national interests and sovereignty amid conditions of asymmetric dependencies and mounting geopolitical pressure.