As part of a Global Policy Dialogue, the Academy’s fellows discussed the reorientation of Germany’s foreign policy with security expert Phyllis Berry. Phyllis Berry served as National Intelligence Officer for Europe within the US intelligence and analysis community from June 2021 to March 2025. Prior to that, she worked, amongst other roles, as Director for Ukraine at the US National Security Council. She is currently a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the American German Institute, where she focuses primarily on German foreign and security policy.

Her central argument is that the shift in Germany’s foreign policy in the wake of the ‘Zeitenwende’ will be profound and long-lasting. However, domestic political tensions, the rise of the AfD and uncertainty surrounding a second Trump administration are complicating its implementation. Germany could therefore continue to follow the pattern of taking two steps forward and one step back. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, but particularly since 2022, Germany has significantly intensified its security cooperation with the countries of Northern and Eastern Europe. A key manifestation of this shift is the 2023 decision to establish a permanently stationed combat brigade in Lithuania. Despite increased regional cooperation, NATO remains the central reference point for German defence policy. Traditionally, Germany has looked particularly to France, Italy and other Western European allies for guidance.

It is now systematically expanding its partnerships northwards and eastwards. The challenges facing Germany’s new leadership role were also discussed. Germany must convert higher defence spending into operational military capabilities. These include modern technologies, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems and a high-performing European defence industry. She criticised outdated weapons systems, inefficient spending and shortcomings in the reform of the Bundeswehr. She also expressed doubts as to whether Germany was prepared to take a firm stance towards Russia and assume the strategic leadership role that has, until now, often been filled by the US, the UK or France.

From all this, Phyllis Berry concluded that Germany’s ‘turning point’ amounts to a long-term strategic shift, the success of which, however, does not depend solely on higher defence spending. Crucial factors, she argued, are credible deterrence, modern military capabilities, closer regional integration, more efficient political decision-making processes and the trust of European partners. Only in this way can Germany consolidate its leading role in security policy within a European security order that remains centred on NATO. In discussions with the fellows, the methodology of scenario-building, tabletop exercises and exercises designed to check assumptions were discussed alongside political issues.